Playing Catch-Up - Geographic Bias, Subprimes, and Super Bowl XLI

It's been a long while since I've posted. With school and work and weddings and whatnot, I just haven't had enough time to sit down and write. Which is strange, since I should be waxing endlessly about the recovery of crude oil. I was noting today, as crude danced above the 60 mark, that it seems the Fear that subsided in an Eastern US Warm Front just weeks ago has returned. Not only is it cold outside the NYMEX, but we may be on the verge of military conflict (read: WAR) with OPEC member Iran. And there is major unrest, rebel kidnappings, and general unruliness in Number Five Oil Supplier Nigeria. "Oh, the Horror," the cry comes from the NYMEX. Nevermind these conditions were completely foreseeable when it was still balmy in NYC. No, life was just peachy then. Not even a rocket fired into the US Embassy in Athens could spark a Fear rally. But things matter now. NYMEX traders are citing them. Throw in a refinery fire in California - which is surprisingly far from the NYMEX - and the Fear is Back.

My favorite lab experiment, the Subprime Sector, took a ValuJet DC9-esque nosedive yesterday on very bad outlooks from both HSBC (HBC) and the riskiest of the lab rats, New Century (NEW). The selloff continued today. You can read my sentiments and the sentiment of at least one other in the Comments thread in the post below.

Finally, the Super Bowl. Yes, one aspect of this game was predictable: Rex Grossman would commit multiple Foul-Ups which would cost the Best Defense in the League the Title. Many people saw this coming. What wasn't predicted - well, at least not predicted by statistics and probability - was the winning square for the final score of the annual Super Bowl Squares Office Pool. A 7/9 square has a historic probability of hitting on the final score .78% of the time; this makes it a loser, unlike 7/0 and last year's final, 1/0. However, it was observed by Yours Truly that during the 2006 season, the 7/9 came up in 2.25% of the final scores. This is significantly higher - nearly three times - than the historic rate, and moderately higher than the 1/0 that took the prize last year. This may be worth investigating, on a geek-hobby level, of course. And most likely after I complete my degree.