\n"); } ?> Mark L Schemper - Muse and Speculate - Blog
Mark L Schemper

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

For What It's Worth

I haven't written anything pertaining to investments for quite a while. Then again, I haven't written anything in a while. The purpose of this post is to serve as a mental note to myself. If someone else finds some value in it, consider it a bonus.

Today I allocated 50% of my IRA into equities. The balanced portfolio I maintained in this account was completely liquidated into 100% cash on the week of August 17, 2007, or 14 months ago. Outside of some dubious short-term directional bets and a profitable stint in gold, I've kept 100% of my retirement account in cash, until today. As you can see by the chart, I looked like a complete dolt on the week of October 12, 2007, and I was kicking myself at that time. Obviously, that feeling subsided shortly after.

I used to write posts about now-defunct subprime lenders being on sale given their cheap P/E ratios. That sentiment changed once the shit started hitting the fan in the summer of 2007. I started to reject the overly bullish calls of certain economists (read: Larry Kudlow and his ilk) who proclaimed the subprime lending problem would be limited to the subprime housing market. I saw their claims as spin/damage-control for the idiot President they so adore - they felt Bush was not getting the credit he deserved for the economic expansion - and far from objective analysis. I feared a credit crisis.

My projections differed from what actually played out; I feared a seizure in consumer credit due to careless lending via credit cards, resulting in a recession induced by a sudden drop in consumer spending. I had only been in this industry professionally for two years at this point, and my perspective was skewed toward consumer behavior because I'd been in the consumer market nearly my entire life (I started mowing lawns for money at Age Eight, yo). I didn't realize the extent of the Credit Default Swap market, I could have never predicted a situation where there would be - for a time - no bids in the commercial paper market, and I never thought I'd see negative yields in US government debt. Pure fear and panic. It turned out those unqualified home buyers weren't the only ones borrowing too much. Everyone had too much debt.

So I'm back in equities, half way, and my exposure is entirely in a consumer discretionary ETF. I'm unsure where the market is going from here, but I don't want to completely miss a turnaround. Then again, if another shoe drops - perhaps another exotic instrument like synthetic CDOs will become the next Boogie Man - I don't want to get killed. No one wants to get killed.

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Friday, May 25, 2007

Speculating on Some Less-than-Glamorous Casinos

Back in February, while celebrating my birthday in Vegas, my girlfriend and I took a stroll through the Riviera Hotel and Casino. The place was huge and empty, and it was a Saturday night. Empty. To illustrate this point, when I used the restroom, I was the only person in there. I've never seen an empty restroom in a casino, not even on Christmas night (then again, I've never been to a Trump casino, but that's another story). Unbelievable, especially since the Rivi was the top casino on the entire planet just fifteen years ago. Sure, fifteen years is plenty of time for markets to change, but this isn't Polaroid or VCRs we're talking about. This experience compelled me to check out the stock upon returning home. It was sitting stagnant at $20. A month later - immediately after my March Madness Vegas trip, where I checked up on the place to see if business had improved; it hadn't - volume and price popped on no news. A few days later, it came out that there was a bid for the property.

Since the North Strip is the future of Vegas, I used the approximate figures from the sale of the nearby Sahara to estimate a value on RIV. This came out to around $30/share. I didn't make a move, stopped paying attention, and missed the boat. A bidding war has started for RIV, with the latest offer coming in at $34/share. The stock is at $37.40 today, up about 85% since my last trip to this dilapidated giant.

Last week, the New Frontier, another North Strip dump with even less going for it than the Rivi, was purchased by Elad Group for $1.2 Billion. Yeah, you read that correctly: One point Two Billion Dollars. It comes as no surprise this sum set a Vegas buyout record at $33 Million per acre. Plans for the New Frontier have been disclosed. It will close in July, be imploded in early 2008, and will be replaced with another mega-resort - the Plaza Las Vegas (not to be confused with the downtown Plaza) - set to open in 2011.

The Riviera is about one block north of the New Frontier. If RIV is eventually sold for $33 Million an acre, that comes out to about $70 per share. Whether RIV will go $33MM per acre will be decided by the interested parties. What is certain, however, is RIV is worth at least as much as the New Frontier. Both are past their prime, and both are sitting on some of the hottest property on The Strip.

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Thursday, April 19, 2007

Ruminating on the Canned Meat (Spam) Portfolio

April 12 marked the conclusion and "liquidation" of the oh-so-experimental Canned Meat (Spam) portfolio I created on Stockpickr. Two full months of tracking the results of stocks selected via unsolicited emails proved ample time to draw some salty conclusions. While most of the results were predictable, the experiment reinforced some basic assumptions and - not unlike a can of pressed and formed meat - offered a few surprises.

First, the obvious: Investing in - or rather, gambling on - these "companies" is a really poor idea. My diversified portfolio lost 45% in just 2 months. And you thought the 3% you lost on February 27th was bad.

Also obvious: Spam campaigns succeed in pumping the price of the stock - albeit temporarily. Apparently there are still enough foolish and unsophisticated "investors" out there who actually move upon these suggestions. This is frightening, especially when you consider that you share the roads with these people, walk past them in the aisles of the grocery store... perhaps you even let your kids play with theirs. I'll posit these folks are the same type of "investors" who are currently sitting on empty, unsellable condos in Fort Lauderdale and Las Vegas. Not savvy.

Not blatantly obvious, but makes perfect sense: Spam campaigns create temporary liquidity in names that are otherwise dry. Some of the names in my portfolio average a volume of just 100,000 shares traded per day, with most trading significantly less. At the height of the China Fruit (CHFR) campaign, daily volume peaked at 1.65 million shares. This is the crucial second piece necessary for perpetrators to make serious cash on these scams (the first being the artificial price spike). Hey, if you need to dump 750,000 shares, it helps if the volume is there. And as I found early in this observation, the combination of a price spike and high liquidity worked quite well for a major holder of China Fruit.

Now, as far as surprises go, this blew me away. One of the names (CBRP) broke even, while another (ACEN) finished up 47%. While CBRP is now down again, ACEN is up higher than it was when I liquidated. A quick glance at the volume chart suggests that another spam campaign was launched on or about April 5, although I never received any of the emails. The takeaway from this: while not statistically significant, one can casually infer that there is a 1-in-8 chance of making money in this arena. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather take the 3:2 blackjack at the Tropicana.

The biggest surprise was what stopped happening midway through this project. The once steady flow of unsolicited stock suggestions completely dried up. Indeed, I received my last suggestion on March 9, roughly one month after I created the portfolio. Don't get me wrong. My Inbox is still inundated with crapmail. The difference is that now the spam is exclusively composed of invitations to indulge in life's finer pleasures, such as weight loss products, erectile dysfunction cures, pirated software, and fake designer watches. Could it be that the stock spammers got wind of my portfolio and took me off their list? I highly doubt it. But the stock spam is gone, which suits me just dandy.

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Thursday, March 15, 2007

The Ides of March - School is Killing Me

Up to my eyeballs in projects/distractions right now. Volatile markets, the Spam portfolio, March Madness picks, and a hefty research paper backtesting the 3x2 Trading System. Trying to get this all done so I can leave for Florida tonight. I'll be out until Tuesday, so no Spam updates for a while. I suppose this is OK, as it is now vividly clear where this portfolio is going. Heck, it's already there.

Tuesday's mini-thrashing of the US markets renders void the predicted tops in the previous post. I don't have time now to do any deep research, but I doubt the S&P will go past 1410, and it will go back down to 1350.

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Friday, March 9, 2007

This Bounce

This bounce is similar to the one that followed the crash of October 1997. They both recovered quite quickly; the market was back on its feet in no time. However, in '97 as in most breakdowns, there was a retest to the downside. I have no reason to believe there will not be one here. The market today is already showing some weakness and little conviction to the upside. NYSE volume is the lowest it's been since the crash last Tuesday. The jobs report wasn't good enough to push the indices through the technicals, and traders are still skiddish and may be reducing long exposure prior to another volatile weekend. Assuming the market has the strength to continue upward, I posit the market will not breech the following levels without a retest.

Dow: 12,400
S&P 500: 1,420
Nasdaq: 2,430


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Friday, March 2, 2007

The VIX Matters. Volatility Matters. Just ask CNBC.

Welcome to the end of the week that was. My apologies for not updating the spam portfolio in a timely matter, but it has been an extremely busy week for me at work. Especially tiring after a weekend in Vegas, but I honestly have no complaints. Sure, I'm upset I missed the greatest short opportunity in years. I went big on a 2x short Nasdaq 100 bet via RYVNX (an open end mutual fund, excluded from my trading restrictions) on February 15 and closed on the 20th; what can I say, timing is still a problem. But I was 45% cash when the storm hit Tuesday, and I'm still patting myself on the back for that one. Good job, Rookie.

I'm genuinely amused by the shift in attitude toward the VIX since Tuesday. I'm referring to the Talking Heads on CNBC, and how they can't get enough vol talk now. VIX this, VIX that, VIX is the most important gauge of the day, blah blah blah. Are these the same people who wouldn't have any mention of it just a week ago? As I said in an earlier post, I was beginning to wonder if what was considered acceptable volatility had moved to the downside. Apparently, it's not so. Like Ice Cube said, "Back to the mutha f'in basics."

I don't think the bleeding is finished... I could see another 2-3% trimmed from the US markets. Put that on the permanent record. In the meantime, enjoy this video, found on Crossing Wall Street with the help of Mr. Altucher. Confusion and exhilaration - what's not to love?

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Thursday, February 22, 2007

Canned Meat - CHFR Pumped & Dumped

I'm glad to see that someone made some money off of last week's spam-induced run-up in China Fruit (CHFR). Nexia Holdings, a diversified holdings company that also trades (NEXA) on the OTC market, dumped $200,000 worth of CHFR shares over this short week. In a shareholder letter dated today, CEO Richard Surber stated

Nexia's subsidiary Diversified Holdings, Inc. has realized about $200,000 over the last three days from the sale of a portion of its holdings in China Fruits Corporation. I sold a portion of the Company's portfolio securities to fund inventory production and development costs for spring inventory.

Things only get more interesting from here.

In this SEC filing, Chinese fruit company Tai Na became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Diversified Holdings.

Three months later, another SEC document shows that Diversified Holdings changed its name to China Fruit, and Tai Na became a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Fruit.

While the name changes are a bit obfuscating, it is clear there was a significant boost in both the volume and the share price of China Fruit due the spam campaign, which began on February 15. And "luckily" for Nexia CEO Surber, the increase in volume allowed him to dump the stock all the way down to its current pre-spam level. Good work, Surber, and congrats on catching the kind of liquidity that was oh-so-illusive - hell, non-existent - just two weeks ago.

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An Overdue Update - Spam, VIX, and Vegas

The spam drought subsided as quickly as it came, and the portfolio now "boasts" five names. Things were actually looking surprisingly rosy over the holiday weekend, with CHFR showing some big gains on Friday (perhaps as a result of their incessant barrage of email?). But Tuesday proved to be another story as CHFR lost nearly 40% of its value on heavy selling. As Mr. Altucher put it in Wednesday's Blog Watch, things are "starting to get ugly."

The VIX remains unusually low, despite yesterday's and today's selloffs. This is driving some eager would-be short sellers absolutely crazy, and has others wondering if the market is redefining what measurement quantifies "low" volatility. And the subprime arena seems to have no bottom in sight after Novastar (NFI) dragged the entire sector even lower yesterday. I'm beginning to think the entry point on most of these names is Never. Or at least a long, long while from now.

The Canned Meat P/L Sheet will not be updated for Friday's close, as I will not have access to the Web after 11am. Vegas is beckoning (again), and who am I to argue with Vegas!

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Wednesday, February 14, 2007

A Spam Drought

I suppose it follows that immediately after starting my spam portfolio, the usual monsoon of stock suggestive emails practically evaporates. Indeed, the flow of spam has been reduced to a trickle since implementing Canned Meat, and the majority of the emails are peddling pirated software and erectile dysfunction meds without a prescription. Hence, no new positions have been added.

In real market news, the VIX Index has tanked in the last two days. If today's rally holds through the day and the VIX stays below 10, it's time to short the SPX for some quick profits on a correction.

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Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Canned Meat - The Fictional Spam Portfolio

Canned Meat (Spam) is my newly created portfolio at Stockpickr. It's a fictional portfolio made up stocks solicited via annoying spam email. Only two days old, and already listed in James Altucher's Daily Blog Watch at The Street. Two spots ahead of Mark Cuban, I might add :P

What's frightening about the Altucher mentioning is that his column is prefaced with this Editor's Note:

Every morning, James Altucher presents the most timely, topical posts from the Web's best business blogs.

Web's best business blogs? Well, I'll leave that up to my two (2) semi-faithful readers.

Canned Meat can be followed at my Stockpickr page, and in more detail by clicking "Canned Meat?" in the navigation at the top of this page.

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Monday, February 12, 2007

Oil Slaughtered... Setup?

Yes, oil got killed today, effectively ending this nice 10-point rally. The optimist in me points out that there is a nice support level building here around the 57.50 mark. Also, Lent pointed out that it could be settling into support in a new uptrend line as well. Tomorrow will be telling.

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Friday, February 9, 2007

Playing Catch-Up - Geographic Bias, Subprimes, and Super Bowl XLI

It's been a long while since I've posted. With school and work and weddings and whatnot, I just haven't had enough time to sit down and write. Which is strange, since I should be waxing endlessly about the recovery of crude oil. I was noting today, as crude danced above the 60 mark, that it seems the Fear that subsided in an Eastern US Warm Front just weeks ago has returned. Not only is it cold outside the NYMEX, but we may be on the verge of military conflict (read: WAR) with OPEC member Iran. And there is major unrest, rebel kidnappings, and general unruliness in Number Five Oil Supplier Nigeria. "Oh, the Horror," the cry comes from the NYMEX. Nevermind these conditions were completely foreseeable when it was still balmy in NYC. No, life was just peachy then. Not even a rocket fired into the US Embassy in Athens could spark a Fear rally. But things matter now. NYMEX traders are citing them. Throw in a refinery fire in California - which is surprisingly far from the NYMEX - and the Fear is Back.

My favorite lab experiment, the Subprime Sector, took a ValuJet DC9-esque nosedive yesterday on very bad outlooks from both HSBC (HBC) and the riskiest of the lab rats, New Century (NEW). The selloff continued today. You can read my sentiments and the sentiment of at least one other in the Comments thread in the post below.

Finally, the Super Bowl. Yes, one aspect of this game was predictable: Rex Grossman would commit multiple Foul-Ups which would cost the Best Defense in the League the Title. Many people saw this coming. What wasn't predicted - well, at least not predicted by statistics and probability - was the winning square for the final score of the annual Super Bowl Squares Office Pool. A 7/9 square has a historic probability of hitting on the final score .78% of the time; this makes it a loser, unlike 7/0 and last year's final, 1/0. However, it was observed by Yours Truly that during the 2006 season, the 7/9 came up in 2.25% of the final scores. This is significantly higher - nearly three times - than the historic rate, and moderately higher than the 1/0 that took the prize last year. This may be worth investigating, on a geek-hobby level, of course. And most likely after I complete my degree.

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Friday, January 26, 2007

Subprimes up on Countrywide Rumor

The Financial Times is reporting a potential alliance or acquisition involving Bank of America (BAC) and mega-subprime Countrywide Financial (CFC). Countrywide is currently up about 10%, and other subprimes - including New Century (NEW) and Accredited Home (LEND) - are up about 2%.

Unnecessary Disclosure: I have no positions in the securities mentioned above

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Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Oil up, stabilizing?

Yes, crude oil was up today, and seems to be stabilizing. Yesterday's bearish reversal was unnerving, but didn't break through any support levels. Lent pointed out that the concave pattern that has formed over the last week resembles a pattern in the Dow and S&P that formed in late October 2005. After breaking out of the concave pattern, the general market took off on a bullish run that has just begun to slow. Bullish indicator? Possibly. The question remains: if oil does break north, how high will it run without any serious fundamental (read: geopolitical) inputs?

Tomorrow morning the weekly inventory report comes out. I'm hoping for a surprise on the higher side, resulting in a selloff and perhaps a test of the support. Assuming this happens and the support holds, I'll be doubling down on USO.

Unnecessary Disclosure: I am currenly long USO.

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Thursday, January 18, 2007

Oil Update - School is in Session

This oil trade - for all its losses - is becoming a hell of an educational experience. Who knew that different Bloomberg terminals would display different values for the Generic Crude Oil (CL1) 200 Week Moving Average? My terminal says 51.38, which crude is now below. On the contrary, my friend's is reading 49.70, and an analyst at Real Money is reporting 49.88. Despite the fact that my figure is looking like the incorrect one (we have a one-day delay on commodity prices, which may or may not affect a weekly MA), it is really negligible since the 200 Week MA is roughly coinciding with the psychological support at 50. Translation: if crude is going to dump any further, it needs to break through two technical barriers.

Today's lesson came from that same friend mentioned above. When the inventory report came out this morning, crude dropped to a new local low, erasing yesterday's gains in the process. As it hit 50.50, I was ready to pull the trigger and get out. That's when said friend - who has more trading experience and probably a hell of a lot more money riding on long oil right now - offered this piece of advice:

if the fundamental news didn't take out the recent lows immediately, then it was already baked into the price action (chart/TA) and unless the recent low gets taken out, then stick with the trade.

I took it as a rule and stuck with it. Sure enough, it held and closed at around 50.50. The 50 mark was tested briefly during the latter part of today's session, with a few prints in the 49.90 neighborhood. But the bulls held and brought it back to the 50.50 range almost immediately.

Can't wait to see how tomorrow pans out. I start every day these days by getting my Sell USO trade authorize, but have yet needed to execute. With the House passing a rollback on oil subsidies, we could see some fundamentally driven action in the Refiners and Oil Services companies. Keep in mind that the Senate has yet to pass this bill, and there is no guarantee they will pass it.

By the way, subprimes are on a losing streak again, and are back near their recent lows.

Unnecessary Disclosure: I am (still) currently long USO.

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Friday, January 12, 2007

The Fear is Gone

The current fallout in the energy markets - namely, crude oil - is beginning to look less like a bounce play and more akin to {insert your favorite tech name here} circa 2001. The long position I took in USO during the first week of December 06 is now a 17% loser. The set-up looked great then, and with so much geopolitical tension and continued demand from emerging markets (read: China), it seemed a likely winner.

But sentiments change, quite fast, even. Last night, OPEC announced an emergency meeting to shore up oil prices. A rocket was fired into the US Embassy in Greece. Today, an American Eagle commuter jet was held on the runway in Toledo, OH, due to a bomb threat. And crude is up for the first time in days, a whole... Two Percent? Not bad, but eighteen months ago we would have seen a frightening spike in oil prices on a day like today; those days are over. All it takes, it might seem, is some unusually warm winter weather in the vicinity of the NYMEX. But warm weather doesn't erode fear, and the fear is clearly gone.

The last time I rode a dog all the way down was during the tech crash; it is now quite out of character for me to hold this big of a loser this long. One of crude oil's last lines of technical support exists at the 200 Week Moving Average, which is currently around $50. If crude crashes through this, I will take my loss, and make note of my lesson. And, of course, re-buy oil the instant the cannons begin to fire upon Iran.

Unnecessary Disclosure: I am currently long USO.

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Thursday, January 11, 2007

Subprimes are Up

After trending generally lower since my last mention of them, subprime lenders New Century Financial (NEW) and Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) are up sharply today - roughly 5% at the time of publishing. NEW started its ascent on Tuesday, while LEND had been down until today.

No news on the major wires, but I did find this Piper Jaffray release dated January 10, 2007. From "Mortgage Outlook: Only Strong Survive; Environment Should Improve by End '07" by Robert P. Napoli:

"Although industry wide subprime credit statistics will deteriorate, credit trends tend to vary greatly from company to company in the subprime space. The charts below display the static pool delinquency data on securitizations of Accredited Home Lenders (LEND: Market Perform), New Century (NEW: Market Perform), and NovaStar Financial (NFI). Historically, LEND's delinquencies have run significantly lower than the subprime industry average. NEW's delinquency data has been improving with the more recent vintages. We believe that NEW has become a more rationale player over the past year and 'got religion' after a scare in August/September of '05 on narrow spreads on aggressive loan types. Very recently, NEW has also adopted even tighter underwriting standards in response to weakening credit trends and the interagency lending guidelines. We believe that both LEND and NEW will be survivors of the subprime shake-out, for several reasons including the lowest cost to originate, larger capital bases, longer corporate history, better underwriting and collections capabilities and, in part, because they have adjusted their underwriting in response to weakening subprime credit."

The report also mentions that Piper Jaffray is lowering it price targets on both securities, but maintaining coverage due to their survivor instincts.

Not sure if a Kind Word from an under-read analyst was enough to set these in motion. Regardless, their both still incredibly cheap, with Forward P/E Ratio's under 7.

Unnecessary Disclosure: I currently have no positions in the securities mentioned above.

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Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Subprimes: A Steal or a Bust?

Much has been made of the subprime lenders lately, especially on CNBC and in the Wall Street Journal. I started watching two of these mortgage gambles about two weeks ago: New Century (NEW) and Accredited Home (LEND). They're both incredibly cheap, with P/E ratios below 5, which means these potential timebombs could also become acquisition targets for big investment banks with the means to hedge out the risk.

Acquisition isn't the only route to a payout, as these companies may be able to recover on their own. I met with Dr. Ed Yardeni last week, who pointed out that housing busts are traditionally caused by low employment and high interest rates, not negative or stagnant housing prices. Employment numbers are currently fine, and interest rates have dropped to a fourteen month low. This sentiment has been echoed by the always-outspoken Madman of Wall Street, Jim Cramer, over the past week. On both CNBC and his thestreet.com website, Cramer has been adamantly downplaying the doom scenario in the subprime space since the media hype began last week.

Hedge fund manager Doug Kass, a regular contributor to Cramer's The Street website, appeared on CNBC midday today, predicting a hard landing in housing and a bust for subprime lenders. He cited slowdowns in the economy and the markets as just one trigger that could send housing defaults into turbo mode. Just ten minutes later, Cramer was back on the air for his Stop Trading segment. Not only did Cramer disagree with Kass, but he also endorsed LEND. I believe this is the first time Cramer has publicly endorsed any name in the subprime genre. Cramer finished off his prediction in typical fashion with an extremely bullish call: Fed Funds to 2.5%, Dow to 16,000 (although he neglected to give a timeline).

Kass's reversal is completely plausible, with December's market performance showing a weakening in the bullish convictions that have dominated since July. But it's hard to call a housing market crash when we've already witnessed a slowdown and have now seen an increase in mortgage applications. Continued strong employment numbers and the lowering of rates could breathe life back into the housing sector, giving subprimes a chance at market cap redemption. I like these names in a gambling sort of way. I wouldn't put next month's mortgage payment on them - and I wouldn't move in on them for a while - but I'd have no problem allocating one week's worth of lottery tickets on them.

Unnecessary Disclosure: I currently have no position in the names mentioned above.

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