Muse and Speculate

For What It's Worth

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 03:45:00 +0000

I haven't written anything pertaining to investments for quite a while. Then again, I haven't written anything in a while. The purpose of this post is to serve as a mental note to myself. If someone else finds some value in it, consider it a bonus.

Today I allocated 50% of my IRA into equities. The balanced portfolio I maintained in this account was completely liquidated into 100% cash on the week of August 17, 2007, or 14 months ago. Outside of some dubious short-term directional bets and a profitable stint in gold, I've kept 100% of my retirement account in cash, until today. As you can see by the chart, I looked like a complete dolt on the week of October 12, 2007, and I was kicking myself at that time. Obviously, that feeling subsided shortly after.

I used to write posts about now-defunct subprime lenders being on sale given their cheap P/E ratios. That sentiment changed once the shit started hitting the fan in the summer of 2007. I started to reject the overly bullish calls of certain economists (read: Larry Kudlow and his ilk) who proclaimed the subprime lending problem would be limited to the subprime housing market. I saw their claims as spin/damage-control for the idiot President they so adore - they felt Bush was not getting the credit he deserved for the economic expansion - and far from objective analysis. I feared a credit crisis.

My projections differed from what actually played out; I feared a seizure in consumer credit due to careless lending via credit cards, resulting in a recession induced by a sudden drop in consumer spending. I had only been in this industry professionally for two years at this point, and my perspective was skewed toward consumer behavior because I'd been in the consumer market nearly my entire life (I started mowing lawns for money at Age Eight, yo). I didn't realize the extent of the Credit Default Swap market, I could have never predicted a situation where there would be - for a time - no bids in the commercial paper market, and I never thought I'd see negative yields in US government debt. Pure fear and panic. It turned out those unqualified home buyers weren't the only ones borrowing too much. Everyone had too much debt.

So I'm back in equities, half way, and my exposure is entirely in a consumer discretionary ETF. I'm unsure where the market is going from here, but I don't want to completely miss a turnaround. Then again, if another shoe drops - perhaps another exotic instrument like synthetic CDOs will become the next Boogie Man - I don't want to get killed. No one wants to get killed.

Las Vegas Economic Woes May Be Due to Deemphasizing Gambling

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 18:05:00 +0000

Reprinted from the Online Casino Advisory, found here.

Perhaps there is an underlying lesson to Vegas planners; the town that gambling built may need to return to its putting gambling as its top and only priority.

Casino stocks continue to fade as major companies have seen their value plummet to a quarter of their worth less than a year ago, and gambling industry analysts remark that the recession-proof expectations of the past no longer exist. The question is, why did the casino business become responsive to economic downturns?

William Eadington, director of the Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming at the University of Nevada, Reno, has an idea. Eadington points out that in 1990, 42 percent of revenue for Las Vegas Strip casinos came from non-gambling sources, such as room rates, restaurants, and retail rentals.

In 2007, that number for non-gambling revenue had increased to 59 percent. A conscious decision had been made over the last twenty years that Vegas resorts were going to feature many forms of entertainment; gambling would no longer be the ultimate reason to visit Las Vegas.

Shows and buffets had always existed, but mainly as lures to draw gamblers. Now the collective strategy of the Strip hotels became to offer complete vacations, pulling tourists who had only marginal interest in gambling.

And the new features were each designed to be money-makers. Two-hundred dollar meals became common among upscale casino restaurants, showcasing the nation's finest chefs. Clubs at Caesars and the Palms were soon the hottest tickets in the country, with long lines willing to pay exorbitant cover charges and outrageous drink prices to stand near celebrities famous only for being famous.

Rooms were decked out in cutting-edge decor and electronics, as it became fashionable to stay at the resorts that ran the most ridiculous rates, and mini-bars and snack centers sold Diet Cokes and Snickers bars for ten dollars each in the convenience of your room.

In other words, Las Vegas became a town that no longer comped and tempted its clientele to come gamble, but a place that sold everything it could find, one part of which happened to encompass wagering.

So, it may be seen that, among other factors including the prohibitive prices paid to build these all-encompassing mega-resorts, a major reason that the casino industry is suffering badly through the current economic storm is that it no longer is the casino industry.

Instead, Las Vegas has become the entertainment industry; and no one ever claimed that restaurants, clubs, upscale retail outlets, and swanky hotels were recession-proof. Perhaps there is an underlying lesson to Vegas planners; the town that gambling built may need to return to its putting gambling as its top and only priority.

According to Sherman Bradley, gaming analyst at OCA, "This is not to say all the flash and glitz must go, but that, if casino managers want an industry unaffected by downturns and recessions, the sparkle must resume its proper place, as a draw for gamblers. Comps and freebies must be brought back en masse, and luxuries and status items should be used as enticements, not revenue generators.

"If the non-gambling services and products cover their own cost, that would be sufficient. Then gamblers would fill the rooms in their rush to play in conditions far beyond what the local slot parlor or Indian casino could offer. Once again, Las Vegas would see revenue going only upwards.

"Las Vegas has reacted poorly to the spread of gambling venues across the country. Instead of pushing their casinos as the greatest gaming spots around, they have tried to diversify, and the result was finding themselves in businesses that do follow economic trends."

Published on August 3, 2008 by Joshua McCarthy

Long Time, No post

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 06:21:00 +0000

ASSuming someone is reading this.

Hawai'i was better than I expected. Honolulu Chinatown was small, anticlimactic, but yielded raw gutted hogs, carpe pools, and a couple of loose white hands - and cameras.

Barry left the SFG tonight. Events like this force Everyone - those who don't qualify, combined with those who do - to face One of Two Faces.

Good Night.

Fin

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 27 Jul 2007 16:29:00 +0000

Email received Thursday, July 26th:

Dear Mark,

On behalf of Santa Clara University's Leavey School of Business, I am pleased to inform you that your MBA degree has been posted. Your diploma will be mailed out to you tomorrow by the Office of the Registrar.

Please note that any concentrations you declared will appear only on your transcript, not your diploma. Should you need an Official Transcript or a Degree Verification Letter, please visit the Office of the Registrar's website at www.scu.edu/studentrecords.

We congratulate you on this major accomplishment and wish you much happiness and success.

Sincerely,
Molly Hall
Assistant Director
Academic Support and Records

Thanks, I'll take it.

New Orleans

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 15:35:00 +0000

Vacation came and went too quickly; I'm ready for another one. Below, some pics and a video from Nawlins.

I Need a Vacation

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 14 Jun 2007 17:24:00 +0000

Seriously, I need a vacation. I'm thinking Road Trip, from southwest Florida back to the West Coast, with some tasty stops along the way. Zig-zagging through the South, hitting Miami, Savannah, New Orleans, Memphis. Tying in with the old Route 66 in OKC and seeing the oddities and abandoned relics scattered throughout the Southwest. Maybe a day at the Grand Canyon, and I'd be remiss to omit Vegas.

Yeah, I'm thinking this sounds absolutely perfect. And I think I'll leave tonight.

Final Update - The MAYhem Diet

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 08 Jun 2007 22:28:00 +0000

Thirty (30) days have come and gone. Results time.

Lost 8.75 lbs.

Reduced body fat by 2.5 percentage points.

Waist reduced by 1.5 inches.

Belly reduced by 2 inches.

Butt reduced by 2 inches.

Thighs reduced by 1 inch.

One thing I noticed is I feel much better. I've been rough on myself the last few weeks, sacrificing much needed sleep for a master's degree. I should have felt like complete crap everyday, but didn't. Granted, I didn't feel spectacular, as I was quite tired. But I didn't feel as bad as I should have. Very cool.

More importantly, my pants fit again! Now if I could just find time to get a tan...

Speculating on Some Less-than-Glamorous Casinos

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 25 May 2007 16:45:00 +0000

Back in February, while celebrating my birthday in Vegas, my girlfriend and I took a stroll through the Riviera Hotel and Casino. The place was huge and empty, and it was a Saturday night. Empty. To illustrate this point, when I used the restroom, I was the only person in there. I've never seen an empty restroom in a casino, not even on Christmas night (then again, I've never been to a Trump casino, but that's another story). Unbelievable, especially since the Rivi was the top casino on the entire planet just fifteen years ago. Sure, fifteen years is plenty of time for markets to change, but this isn't Polaroid or VCRs we're talking about. This experience compelled me to check out the stock upon returning home. It was sitting stagnant at $20. A month later - immediately after my March Madness Vegas trip, where I checked up on the place to see if business had improved; it hadn't - volume and price popped on no news. A few days later, it came out that there was a bid for the property.

Since the North Strip is the future of Vegas, I used the approximate figures from the sale of the nearby Sahara to estimate a value on RIV. This came out to around $30/share. I didn't make a move, stopped paying attention, and missed the boat. A bidding war has started for RIV, with the latest offer coming in at $34/share. The stock is at $37.40 today, up about 85% since my last trip to this dilapidated giant.

Last week, the New Frontier, another North Strip dump with even less going for it than the Rivi, was purchased by Elad Group for $1.2 Billion. Yeah, you read that correctly: One point Two Billion Dollars. It comes as no surprise this sum set a Vegas buyout record at $33 Million per acre. Plans for the New Frontier have been disclosed. It will close in July, be imploded in early 2008, and will be replaced with another mega-resort - the Plaza Las Vegas (not to be confused with the downtown Plaza) - set to open in 2011.

The Riviera is about one block north of the New Frontier. If RIV is eventually sold for $33 Million an acre, that comes out to about $70 per share. Whether RIV will go $33MM per acre will be decided by the interested parties. What is certain, however, is RIV is worth at least as much as the New Frontier. Both are past their prime, and both are sitting on some of the hottest property on The Strip.

Week 2 Update - The MAYhem Diet

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 22 May 2007 16:21:00 +0000

Still no trouble following the diet plan. I've come to realize, however, that if I weren't so busy with school right now and I actually had a social life, the plan would be much harder to follow strictly. Then again, that's why I chose to implement it at this time.

Results thus far are encouraging: eight pounds of fat lost, three pounds of muscle gained, body fat reduced by three percentage points. As I mentioned last week, I am mostly concerned with muscle loss. Hence I ramped up my weight training routine, although I haven't spent more than a total of 30 minutes all week lifting weights. The formula of heavy lifting, high protien, and a modest amount of cardio is working out well.

Week 1 Update - The MAYhem Diet

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 15 May 2007 14:45:00 +0000

One week in, and all is well. This diet is incredibly easy to follow. The meals are filling, and I don't feel like I'm missing out on anything. Results so far are very acceptable. I've lost 4.5lbs - mostly fat - and reduced my body fat by 1 percentage point. My only concern was losing lean body mass (read: muscle) along with the fat. I've taken some steps to curb this, however, and they seem to be working.

I've also learned to curb my gluttony on the cheat days. You are given one day per week to stray from the plan and eat what you want, and I overdid it this time. The funny thing is that I gorged on pie and ice cream not because I necessarily wanted it, but because I could. This resulted in poor sleep that night, and a disappointing weigh-in the following morning. Lesson learned. Duly noted. Back to kicking ass.

The Edge of Bankruptcy?

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 14 May 2007 20:49:00 +0000

A casual observation worth mentioning: while en route to visit my parents yesterday, I saw - for the very first time - a Ford Edge. On the road, sans dealer plates. Meaning someone actually paid money for it. Given, I do live in a region where the vehicular landscape is defined by Japanese and European offerings - wait. That's everywhere in the US these days, with the notable exceptions of the Midwest and California's Central Valley. Still, when I consider how many Ford Edge advertisements I've seen since December - in print, online, on television, and the three-dimensional billboards on 101 and 880 - I can't help but wonder how much they've lost on this one.

For the record, I think it's pretty ugly.

Fat, Getting Fatter

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 11 May 2007 16:12:00 +0000

Seems like I've been having to suck in my gut a lot lately, like I put on some weight or something. I was right.

Work and school have taken a toll on my waist, weight, and general health. Five days a week, I eat lunch at my desk, rarely sampling fresh air between 7am and 4pm. To borrow one from Dick Cheney, I'm in the "last throes" of my MBA program, and the volume of work is overwhelming. So it came as no surprise when last week, I weighed in at.. well, let's just say it's a 52 Week High. Until I finish my degree in early June, my ability to exercise is severely limited. The only way to combat this offensive weight gain is through the most dreaded method of all: diet. Since the next four weeks will be miserable anyway - consumed with schoolwork and deficient in any form of entertainment or amusement - I have decided to implement a diet. Heck, I really have nothing to live for until school finishes. Why not go on a diet?

I came across a rather strict plan on the front page of del.icio.us that claims to drop 20 lbs of fat in four weeks. This is a stricter version of the slow-carb diet used by the Ultimate Human Being Dean Carnazes. I would be happy with 15 lbs in that time, and I'd be even happier if I looked half as good as Dean. So I started on Monday.

Discipline is the biggest killer of diets for the majority of people. This isn't my first foray in hardcore diet/exercise regimens, though. In April 2006, I implemented a 16-week program I found in Men's Fitness (one of the few fitness mags I trust) that gave phenomenal results. So discipline isn't a problem. I treat these things for what they are - experiments in life - and I'm looking forward to seeing the results. Expect some updates along the way, assuming progress is realized.

Profiting off of Regional Biases

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 23 Apr 2007 06:03:00 +0000

Prior to tonight's Game 1 of the Warriors/Mavericks series, the contract for Dallas to win this series on tradesports.com was at 90%. On the surface, this makes plenty of sense. Dallas - the Number 1 seed in the West - finished with the best regular season record, winning 67 games and garnering plenty of national media coverage. Golden State - the lowly Number 8 seed - didn't earn a playoff berth until the final game of the regular season.

Yes, giving the Mavs a 90% chance of winning the series makes sense, given you live anywhere outside the Bay Area. The chances of the Warriors taking Game 1 in Dallas - and perhaps making a real contest out of this "gimme" series - are actually quite strong. Here are some key facts the New York based media has failed to mention to its national audience.

Golden State has dominated Dallas, winning 6 of the last 7 regular season games. Ignore their last game, if you like. It's still what we refer to in sports as "ownage".

This Warriors squad has only been playing together since March 5, when a healthy Baron Davis returned to a new line-up featuring Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington. The team went 16-5 to end the season, making GSW one of the hottest teams in the NBA.

Warriors coach Don Nelson - already a master at his craft - tutored Dallas coach Avery Johnson not only as a coach, but also as a player. Advantage: Nellie.

Given these points and the fact that most fans are unaware of them, I smelled an inefficient market and decided to bet on a Warriors victory in Game 1. I surmised the best way to play this was to short the Series contract at 90%. I assumed this contract would give a potential loss of roughly 50% (contract moving to 95%), with a potential reward of 100% (contract moving to 80%), after the conclusion of Game 1.

With Game 1 now in the books as a 97-85 Golden State victory, I'm pleased to report an actual return of 94.5%. While I still believe the Warriors can give Dallas a very good run in this series, I closed all the contracts and took all the profits now. Betting with your heart is a dangerous game, so I'll enjoy the remainder of this series without money on the line.

Bottom Line: If you live outside of New York or Los Angeles, and are irritated by the obvious media biases given to these regions, don't complain about it. Profit from it. You are privy to information the masses are not exposed to, and this information gives you an advantage as a speculator.

Update, April 30: With the Warriors now ahead 3-1 and on the verge of making history, I'm obviously disappointed that I didn't keep some of those contracts open. Not just because I could close them now at a 500% return. Rather, the secret of the GSW is now out and this kind of opportunity to take money from the misinformed won't present itself again for a long while; the market has become more efficient. No complaints, though. This playoff series has been amazingly fun, and money has been made. Never complain about a profit. Or a great game.

Ruminating on the Canned Meat (Spam) Portfolio

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 19 Apr 2007 14:38:00 +0000

April 12 marked the conclusion and "liquidation" of the oh-so-experimental Canned Meat (Spam) portfolio I created on Stockpickr. Two full months of tracking the results of stocks selected via unsolicited emails proved ample time to draw some salty conclusions. While most of the results were predictable, the experiment reinforced some basic assumptions and - not unlike a can of pressed and formed meat - offered a few surprises.

First, the obvious: Investing in - or rather, gambling on - these "companies" is a really poor idea. My diversified portfolio lost 45% in just 2 months. And you thought the 3% you lost on February 27th was bad.

Also obvious: Spam campaigns succeed in pumping the price of the stock - albeit temporarily. Apparently there are still enough foolish and unsophisticated "investors" out there who actually move upon these suggestions. This is frightening, especially when you consider that you share the roads with these people, walk past them in the aisles of the grocery store... perhaps you even let your kids play with theirs. I'll posit these folks are the same type of "investors" who are currently sitting on empty, unsellable condos in Fort Lauderdale and Las Vegas. Not savvy.

Not blatantly obvious, but makes perfect sense: Spam campaigns create temporary liquidity in names that are otherwise dry. Some of the names in my portfolio average a volume of just 100,000 shares traded per day, with most trading significantly less. At the height of the China Fruit (CHFR) campaign, daily volume peaked at 1.65 million shares. This is the crucial second piece necessary for perpetrators to make serious cash on these scams (the first being the artificial price spike). Hey, if you need to dump 750,000 shares, it helps if the volume is there. And as I found early in this observation, the combination of a price spike and high liquidity worked quite well for a major holder of China Fruit.

Now, as far as surprises go, this blew me away. One of the names (CBRP) broke even, while another (ACEN) finished up 47%. While CBRP is now down again, ACEN is up higher than it was when I liquidated. A quick glance at the volume chart suggests that another spam campaign was launched on or about April 5, although I never received any of the emails. The takeaway from this: while not statistically significant, one can casually infer that there is a 1-in-8 chance of making money in this arena. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather take the 3:2 blackjack at the Tropicana.

The biggest surprise was what stopped happening midway through this project. The once steady flow of unsolicited stock suggestions completely dried up. Indeed, I received my last suggestion on March 9, roughly one month after I created the portfolio. Don't get me wrong. My Inbox is still inundated with crapmail. The difference is that now the spam is exclusively composed of invitations to indulge in life's finer pleasures, such as weight loss products, erectile dysfunction cures, pirated software, and fake designer watches. Could it be that the stock spammers got wind of my portfolio and took me off their list? I highly doubt it. But the stock spam is gone, which suits me just dandy.

Florida Gators

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 05 Apr 2007 18:25:00 +0000

In honor of the Florida Gators' back to back NCAA basketball championships, I'm sharing some pics of actual Florida gators. The majority of the pics were taken at the Oasis Ranger Station on the Tamiami Trail (US 41). The gas station gator - the one wrapped around the post of the amusing Warning sign - is located at the Mobil Station on Alligator Alley (Interstate 75). Both locations are smack in the middle of the Everglades. These pics were not taken at a farm or zoo. This is the real deal. We took these pics on our recent trip to South Florida, March 16 - 19. View the full portfolio of gators here.

The Ides of March - School is Killing Me

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 15 Mar 2007 14:50:00 +0000

Up to my eyeballs in projects/distractions right now. Volatile markets, the Spam portfolio, March Madness picks, and a hefty research paper backtesting the 3x2 Trading System. Trying to get this all done so I can leave for Florida tonight. I'll be out until Tuesday, so no Spam updates for a while. I suppose this is OK, as it is now vividly clear where this portfolio is going. Heck, it's already there.

Tuesday's mini-thrashing of the US markets renders void the predicted tops in the previous post. I don't have time now to do any deep research, but I doubt the S&P will go past 1410, and it will go back down to 1350.

This Bounce

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 09 Mar 2007 15:32:00 +0000

This bounce is similar to the one that followed the crash of October 1997. They both recovered quite quickly; the market was back on its feet in no time. However, in '97 as in most breakdowns, there was a retest to the downside. I have no reason to believe there will not be one here. The market today is already showing some weakness and little conviction to the upside. NYSE volume is the lowest it's been since the crash last Tuesday. The jobs report wasn't good enough to push the indices through the technicals, and traders are still skiddish and may be reducing long exposure prior to another volatile weekend. Assuming the market has the strength to continue upward, I posit the market will not breech the following levels without a retest.

Dow: 12,400
S&P 500: 1,420
Nasdaq: 2,430

NYT - In Las Vegas, the Drink Makes the Mayor

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 05:57:00 +0000

"I am an expert in martinis," said Mr. Goodman, a 67-year-old Democrat who calls himself "the happiest mayor in the world. If I could finish all the gin I have in my home, I would live to be about 3,000 years old."

Gin lovers, Vegas lovers, Politic Lovers, heck, everyone will like this.

A Needed Reprieve - The Greatest Rock n Roll Song Ever Written

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Sat, 03 Mar 2007 07:39:00 +0000

It was mental exhaustion. I left at 3:25pm today, a good hour or two - sometimes three - before I usually leave. Tye called on the way out - I told him "I'm gonna drink a Martini and go to bed." He laughed and said I sound like DiSalvo. I laughed - I'm too young for that. Sorry, Paul.

I got home and, after a quick ponder of rest, went out for some dinner and drinks with friends. Earlier - at 3:25 to be exact - I felt a distinctive and unmistakable craving for chilled gin. A Sapphire Martini, Dry. Upon arrival, I had Three, and my inner shoulders finally relaxed.

On my way out, I turned on the radio and was greeted by what I casually consider The Greatest Rock n Roll Song Ever. So simple, so perfect, so appropriate for the official end of a week. Any week. Especially a week like this.

Thank you Kretz, DeLeo, DeLeo, and Weiland, for plowing through so much media-inflicted shit in your early years. Had you not, we would not be blessed with The Greatest Song Ever. I know the story sucks, but some of us - even 13 years later and at the end of our proverbial rope - still get it. And love it.

Until Monday, I leave all two of you with a Gin-Soaked Olive. Enjoy the weekend. Monday is Big.

The VIX Matters. Volatility Matters. Just ask CNBC.

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 15:47:00 +0000

Welcome to the end of the week that was. My apologies for not updating the spam portfolio in a timely matter, but it has been an extremely busy week for me at work. Especially tiring after a weekend in Vegas, but I honestly have no complaints. Sure, I'm upset I missed the greatest short opportunity in years. I went big on a 2x short Nasdaq 100 bet via RYVNX (an open end mutual fund, excluded from my trading restrictions) on February 15 and closed on the 20th; what can I say, timing is still a problem. But I was 45% cash when the storm hit Tuesday, and I'm still patting myself on the back for that one. Good job, Rookie.

I'm genuinely amused by the shift in attitude toward the VIX since Tuesday. I'm referring to the Talking Heads on CNBC, and how they can't get enough vol talk now. VIX this, VIX that, VIX is the most important gauge of the day, blah blah blah. Are these the same people who wouldn't have any mention of it just a week ago? As I said in an earlier post, I was beginning to wonder if what was considered acceptable volatility had moved to the downside. Apparently, it's not so. Like Ice Cube said, "Back to the mutha f'in basics."

I don't think the bleeding is finished... I could see another 2-3% trimmed from the US markets. Put that on the permanent record. In the meantime, enjoy this video, found on Crossing Wall Street with the help of Mr. Altucher. Confusion and exhilaration - what's not to love?

Canned Meat - CHFR Pumped & Dumped

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 22 Feb 2007 21:22:00 +0000

I'm glad to see that someone made some money off of last week's spam-induced run-up in China Fruit (CHFR). Nexia Holdings, a diversified holdings company that also trades (NEXA) on the OTC market, dumped $200,000 worth of CHFR shares over this short week. In a shareholder letter dated today, CEO Richard Surber stated

Nexia's subsidiary Diversified Holdings, Inc. has realized about $200,000 over the last three days from the sale of a portion of its holdings in China Fruits Corporation. I sold a portion of the Company's portfolio securities to fund inventory production and development costs for spring inventory.

Things only get more interesting from here.

In this SEC filing, Chinese fruit company Tai Na became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Diversified Holdings.

Three months later, another SEC document shows that Diversified Holdings changed its name to China Fruit, and Tai Na became a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Fruit.

While the name changes are a bit obfuscating, it is clear there was a significant boost in both the volume and the share price of China Fruit due the spam campaign, which began on February 15. And "luckily" for Nexia CEO Surber, the increase in volume allowed him to dump the stock all the way down to its current pre-spam level. Good work, Surber, and congrats on catching the kind of liquidity that was oh-so-illusive - hell, non-existent - just two weeks ago.

An Overdue Update - Spam, VIX, and Vegas

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Thu, 22 Feb 2007 15:55:00 +0000

The spam drought subsided as quickly as it came, and the portfolio now "boasts" five names. Things were actually looking surprisingly rosy over the holiday weekend, with CHFR showing some big gains on Friday (perhaps as a result of their incessant barrage of email?). But Tuesday proved to be another story as CHFR lost nearly 40% of its value on heavy selling. As Mr. Altucher put it in Wednesday's Blog Watch, things are "starting to get ugly."

The VIX remains unusually low, despite yesterday's and today's selloffs. This is driving some eager would-be short sellers absolutely crazy, and has others wondering if the market is redefining what measurement quantifies "low" volatility. And the subprime arena seems to have no bottom in sight after Novastar (NFI) dragged the entire sector even lower yesterday. I'm beginning to think the entry point on most of these names is Never. Or at least a long, long while from now.

The Canned Meat P/L Sheet will not be updated for Friday's close, as I will not have access to the Web after 11am. Vegas is beckoning (again), and who am I to argue with Vegas!

A Spam Drought

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 14 Feb 2007 15:52:00 +0000

I suppose it follows that immediately after starting my spam portfolio, the usual monsoon of stock suggestive emails practically evaporates. Indeed, the flow of spam has been reduced to a trickle since implementing Canned Meat, and the majority of the emails are peddling pirated software and erectile dysfunction meds without a prescription. Hence, no new positions have been added.

In real market news, the VIX Index has tanked in the last two days. If today's rally holds through the day and the VIX stays below 10, it's time to short the SPX for some quick profits on a correction.

Canned Meat - The Fictional Spam Portfolio

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Wed, 14 Feb 2007 03:27:00 +0000

Canned Meat (Spam) is my newly created portfolio at Stockpickr. It's a fictional portfolio made up stocks solicited via annoying spam email. Only two days old, and already listed in James Altucher's Daily Blog Watch at The Street. Two spots ahead of Mark Cuban, I might add :P

What's frightening about the Altucher mentioning is that his column is prefaced with this Editor's Note:

Every morning, James Altucher presents the most timely, topical posts from the Web's best business blogs.

Web's best business blogs? Well, I'll leave that up to my two (2) semi-faithful readers.

Canned Meat can be followed at my Stockpickr page, and in more detail by clicking "Canned Meat?" in the navigation at the top of this page.

SCU Broncos looking NCAA Bound

noreply@blogger.com (Mark) — Tue, 13 Feb 2007 07:06:00 +0000

Oh yeah... The alma mater took out Gonzaga in Spokane, snapping the Zags' NCAA-leading 50 game home winning streak in the process. I smell a WCC title and a tournament birth.

And in other College Basketball news, Duke fell out of the Top 25 polls for the first time in what seems like decades. Duke Sucks.